Monthly Outlook: April 2024 The markets bottomed out last October, and they’ve been rebounding higher since. Our portfolios are up an impressive 15% to 18% over the past six months, depending on which iFolios model we’re looking at. And the Long/Short model is up a little more than 18%. The best news is that every market that we invest in remains uptrending as we begin April, so we’re still all-in and positioned for more growth. Of course, we need to look longer term than six months and we know that the overarching goal of most investors is to compound growth and minimize loss from drawdowns to create real wealth over time. In 2022, we were able to show that we could reduce drawdown risk and volatility. And now, over the past six months, we’ve shown that we can capture upside and growth, as well. As a result, our two-year performance [...]

Monthly Outlook: March 2024 The rally off the October lows continued through February and nearly every market is trending higher (above its 200-day moving average price trendline). As a result, we remain “all in” for growth and have less than two percent in Cash. Our portfolios under management are up 9% to 16% since October, depending on which allocation model they’re in. That’s in line with market benchmarks, too, so we’re capturing all the gains that the markets have to offer. As the common wisdom goes, “Cut your losers quickly, and let your winners run.” We’re doing that. The economy, and the markets as a reflection, are in a sweet spot for now. Yes, the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates from 0% to 5.25%, which hurts borrowers. But it’s working to gradually quell inflation (CPI is down from 10% to 4%) and stabilize prices. Earnings are still good with [...]

Monthly Outlook: February 2024 It’s been a terrific three months in markets. And we’re talking all markets, Bonds, US Stocks, INTL Stocks – they’re all trending higher. As a result, we’re still “all in” for growth and our portfolios are up about 11% over the past several months. Investors seem optimistic about the potential of AI (artificial intelligence) and the hope for interest rate cuts. And so far, the economy remains fairly strong and corporate earnings are still growing. So up, up we go! Last year, Technology, Communications, and Consumer Cyclicals were the super-star sectors of the market. We call them “US Growth”, collectively. And just seven stocks, the “Magnificent Seven” contributed about 73% of the total S&P500 return. Already this year, we’re seeing a broadening out of returns as other sectors (Financials, Healthcare, Energy, etc.) and other markets (Bonds, US Value, and INTL) are trending higher, too. We wouldn’t [...]

Monthly Outlook: January 2024 As we embark on another year, we first must get through the countless predictions and forecasts. John Kenneth Galbraith said, “There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.” Similarly, Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” All kidding aside, everyone knows that most forecasts are wrong, and sometimes very wrong. But it’s just too irresistible to try, and we seem to be hopelessly addicted to people who claim they can see the future. Take, for example, the Barron’s Roundtable “Year Ahead Outlook.” Twelve leading strategists from major Wall Street firms are interviewed, and their year-ahead stock market and interest rate forecasts are recorded. It’s laughable how wrong they are, year after year, but the survey sure sells newspapers! Not to be outdone, we offer our own 2024 Outlook, below. Unlike most, [...]

Monthly Outlook: December 2023 The Santa Claus Rally came early this year with nearly every market surging higher in November. Just last month, our Outlook title was “What’s Up? Not Much.” One month later, we’d have to answer, “Everything!” US Growth & Value, INTL, Emerging (except China), Bonds – they’re all trending higher again. Even the Israeli stock market turned back up, despite the on-going conflict, and is higher than it was pre-war. So, why the surge? It seems investors are increasingly confident that the Fed and other central bankers have completed their interest rate hikes and monetary tightening. The idea is that lower interest rates in 2024 will support higher financial asset prices. And that’s true, mathematically. After the COVID pandemic smashed the global economy in early 2020, global central bankers unleashed massive stimulus in late 2020 and all of 2021. That (and vaccines) stabilized the economy and markets. [...]

Monthly Outlook: November 2023 Global stock markets had a decent run from March to July. But they’ve been zigzagging lower over the past three months. We know many of you have noticed because you’ve been calling in for reassurance. We all know that markets bounce around daily, but we focus on medium- to long-term trend changes. That is, we’re looking for the day when any of our market ETFs cross over their price trendline. And we can report, we are seeing crossovers happening right now. As a reminder, price trendlines are a simple calculation, based on moving average prices. They’re numerical like a thermometer reading. On our charts, we can see when any of our market index ETFs cross above or below their price trendline. That’s our trigger to either buy or sell, and we’ve been selling. So, what’s up? US Growth Stocks, Commodities, and Short-Term Bonds. That’s about it. [...]